Time for a reality check
The world is enjoying a moment of hope for Israeli-Palestinian relations--a moment of dangerous hope because expectations are being raised too high. The election of Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to succeed Yasser Arafat is a positive. Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has advocated an end to the intifada terrorism, and Palestinian public opinion seems to have recoiled from the corruption and violence associated with Arafat's regime. A Palestinian majority, finally, may have come to recognize that their war of terror will never lead to peace. But Abbas must now convince Palestinians that they will have to detoxify their society before anything like a real peace can exist. Too many Palestinians have devoted themselves for far too long not to the creation of a two-state solution but to the eradication of one state and one people: Israel and the Jews.
There is thus no prospect yet of a diplomatic Hail Mary, in terms of realizing a full peace agreement, but there would be a real chance of the first step--an improved atmosphere that would lead to a peace based on trust--if President Abbas can deliver. Alas, realism requires us to recognize that he is not a strong leader and that, in fact, he has a long history of weakness in the face of Palestinian terrorism. Missing from his entire campaign was a serious discussion in which the Palestinian leadership prepared their people for a more honest approach, one in which Palestinian leaders would announce, in Arabic to their own people, the words of accommodation they mouth in English to convince the western media and governments of their commitment to peace.
The power of the gun. For Abu Mazen, the real test is now. Arafat made moderation synonymous with treason. He established a cult of total victory and a culture of hatred toward Israel; he legitimized terrorism and suicide bombings; he used the mosques, the media, and the schools to instill his animus in his people, even among the youngest children. Abu Mazen, as a result, now faces a range of serious problems. There are the splits between the young guard and the old; between the Tunis crowd that came to Palestine and the local intifada veterans; between Gazans and West Bank residents; and, finally, between refugees and nonrefugees. Then there is the squabbling among the different Palestinian security services, the absence of security in Palestinian neighborhoods ruled by armed gangs, and the corruption in the PA. Worst of all is the intransigence of the terrorist organizations headed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Their habitual resort to violence is compounded by the Arafat legacy of more than a dozen different security agencies that function largely as individual fiefdoms, following orders only if it suits them.
Taken together, all of these factors will limit Abu Mazen's ability to make compromises for peace. No one has yet found a Palestinian security force willing to obey an order to confront the militants in the West Bank and Gaza. In fact, Abu Mazen has declared, "I will not use weapons against any Palestinian." So he has fraternized with Hamas, snuggled up to Islamic Jihad, and promised terrorists that he will not disarm them but will protect them. In a culture where the roots of power, and even legitimacy, grow out of the power of the gun, the likelihood is that Abu Mazen will try to create the facade of dealing with these terrorist groups while he focuses his agenda on strengthening his political authority.
advertisement
