The Old Dominion's New Math
The election's calculus is on vivid display in Virginia
MANASSAS, VA.-When Sen. George Allen arrived at the tiny airport here last week to accept the endorsement of the National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition, the group's chairman told him he hadn't cut his ponytail since the 9/11 attacks. The chairman, John Molloy, said it was a show of defiance against Islamic terrorists, inspired by the story of an American frontiersman who grew his hair in defiance of Indian scalpers. That's precisely why the United States can't pull out of Iraq, Allen told him. "If we leave," Allen said, "they'll strike us again."
But in his speech to the assembled crowd of veterans a few minutes later, Allen-whose calls for "staying the course" in Iraq have been playing across the state in TV ads for Democratic challenger Jim Webb-struck a different tone. "It's clear that mistakes were made [in Iraq] and that progress has been far too slow," he said. "We cannot continue to do the same things and expect different results." It's the kind of criticism that vulnerable Republican Senate incumbents, and even the White House, are suddenly adopting as Iraq continues to spiral downward. "If you are embracing the 'We're not going to change anything in Iraq' strategy, you are going to lose," says a top GOP adviser to Senate candidates. "We need smart strategy rather than slogans like 'stay the course.'"
Adjustments. For some Republican senators, though, it may be too late. In the past two weeks, party strategists have privately begun to cede seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana and to refocus resources on protecting incumbents in red states like Missouri and Tennessee, where spending from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shot from zero to $2.5 million just since the beginning of the month. While Republicans-along with some Democrats and independent analysts-are still doubtful that they will lose the six seats that would change control of the Senate, the GOP's so-called firewall of protection may now be down to as few as two or three seats. Which means that Virginia could determine Senate control.
No Senate race in the nation has tightened as dramatically as the Old Dominion's. A former Virginia governor, Allen was thought a shoo-in for re-election and was mulling a 2008 White House bid until a video of him calling a Webb volunteer of Indian descent "macaca" was posted online in August, drawing national attention. "Macaca got Webb a lot more press and saved us at least a million dollars in ads," says Webb pollster Pete Brodnitz. Allen's fumbling response to revelations about his previously unacknowledged Jewish ancestry last month-"I still had a ham sandwich for lunch, and my mother made great pork chops"-further alarmed even many GOP officials. Such gaffes helped Webb out-fundraise Allen by $1 million in the past quarter and forced the NRSC to pony up nearly $1 million in response. Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams blames the rhetorical missteps for recent polls showing the race to be in a dead heat: "It's competitive not because of anything Webb has done."
But the Democratic Party backed Webb, a decorated Vietnam vet who served as secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan and was until recently a Republican, over a party activist in this year's primary because Webb's military background could appeal to culturally conservative Virginia voters. The race depends on "whether the Reagan Democrats will come home," says Webb, a zealous Iraq war critic and father of a marine stationed there who dons his son's combat boots on the campaign trail. "A lot of people whose political outlook is aligned with Democrats went over to the Republicans on national security issues because the Democrats were in such disarray. ... I'm not beholden to the Democratic Party on those issues." Webb advisers estimate that as many as half of all Virginians have a family member who is active duty military or a vet. "A lot of people are going to say, 'He served, and I served ... and I don't need to know much more,'" says Webb adviser Steve Jarding, who managed Mark Warner's successful 2001 bid for governor.
But Webb has his problems. Much has been made of a 1979 article in which Webb opposed women in combat and described the Naval Academy as "a horny woman's dream." The GOP attacks appear to have hurt Webb, with a recent poll showing women, who traditionally lean Democratic, breaking slightly for Allen. At the campaign stop in Manassas, meanwhile, Allen appeared with fellow Virginia Sen. John Warner-a veteran and former Navy secretary-in an attempt to burnish his own military credentials. "A lot of shot and fire goes across the halls of Congress," Warner said. "George is my foxhole buddy."
Issues. Still, the Allen campaign says its victory depends on turning the debate away from character to issues like the economy and education, where Webb has little experience, and portraying Webb as a tax hiker and proponent of same-sex marriage, both of which Webb says he opposes. And Allen still has $5.5 million on hand-more than twice as much as Webb-to finance a late blizzard of negative ads. "Webb doesn't seem terribly well informed on local issues," says George Mason University political scientist Mark Rozell. "But this is a year when all politics may not be local. It's more about discontent with Bush and Iraq."
Democrats are also banking on fast-growing Northern Virginia counties, which are drawing new Democratic residents from the Washington, D.C., area, to produce up to 40 percent of Webb's votes. A recent Washington Post poll gave Webb a 14-point lead in Northern Virginia but had him 10 points behind in the rest of the state. "It's almost as though Virginia has become two states: Northern Virginia and all the rest," says Rozell. It's one more factor that has the Allen campaign nervous. "There's a notion that Virginia is a solidly red state," says campaign manager Wadhams. "I don't think that ever was the case." It certainly isn't this year.
This story appears in the October 30, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.