The Old Dominion's New Math
The election's calculus is on vivid display in Virginia
But the Democratic Party backed Webb, a decorated Vietnam vet who served as secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan and was until recently a Republican, over a party activist in this year's primary because Webb's military background could appeal to culturally conservative Virginia voters. The race depends on "whether the Reagan Democrats will come home," says Webb, a zealous Iraq war critic and father of a marine stationed there who dons his son's combat boots on the campaign trail. "A lot of people whose political outlook is aligned with Democrats went over to the Republicans on national security issues because the Democrats were in such disarray. ... I'm not beholden to the Democratic Party on those issues." Webb advisers estimate that as many as half of all Virginians have a family member who is active duty military or a vet. "A lot of people are going to say, 'He served, and I served ... and I don't need to know much more,'" says Webb adviser Steve Jarding, who managed Mark Warner's successful 2001 bid for governor.
But Webb has his problems. Much has been made of a 1979 article in which Webb opposed women in combat and described the Naval Academy as "a horny woman's dream." The GOP attacks appear to have hurt Webb, with a recent poll showing women, who traditionally lean Democratic, breaking slightly for Allen. At the campaign stop in Manassas, meanwhile, Allen appeared with fellow Virginia Sen. John Warner-a veteran and former Navy secretary-in an attempt to burnish his own military credentials. "A lot of shot and fire goes across the halls of Congress," Warner said. "George is my foxhole buddy."
Issues. Still, the Allen campaign says its victory depends on turning the debate away from character to issues like the economy and education, where Webb has little experience, and portraying Webb as a tax hiker and proponent of same-sex marriage, both of which Webb says he opposes. And Allen still has $5.5 million on hand-more than twice as much as Webb-to finance a late blizzard of negative ads. "Webb doesn't seem terribly well informed on local issues," says George Mason University political scientist Mark Rozell. "But this is a year when all politics may not be local. It's more about discontent with Bush and Iraq."
Democrats are also banking on fast-growing Northern Virginia counties, which are drawing new Democratic residents from the Washington, D.C., area, to produce up to 40 percent of Webb's votes. A recent Washington Post poll gave Webb a 14-point lead in Northern Virginia but had him 10 points behind in the rest of the state. "It's almost as though Virginia has become two states: Northern Virginia and all the rest," says Rozell. It's one more factor that has the Allen campaign nervous. "There's a notion that Virginia is a solidly red state," says campaign manager Wadhams. "I don't think that ever was the case." It certainly isn't this year.
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