Keystone State Scuffle
Has the clock struck 12 for Rick Santorum?
NESQUEHONING, PA.-Here in the rolling hills of eastern Pennsylvania, Republican Sen. Rick Santorum seems so relaxed that you might forget that he's in the fight of his life. It's a curious persona for a conservative firebrand, a man known for wearing his religion on his sleeve. That in-your-face style is one of the key reasons Santorum is running behind his Democratic opponent, state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., in this battleground swing state. It also might explain why, out here on the stump, Santorum is instead calmly focusing on the incumbent's advantage: the ability to bring home the bacon. During a chat with firefighters, Santorum notes that in his 12 years as a senator, he's brought back more than $3 million to this region alone for road and other projects.
"When I get a bee in my bonnet for the people of my state, I pound away hard," he says. But this time around, even that sort of Washington clout could be a double-edged sword, thanks to the flagging popularity of Republicans and the president. George Bush's disapproval rating in Pennsylvania is 59 percent, according to a recent poll-and over the years, this incumbent senator has been with him more often than not. Can Rick Santorum overcome all that?
Nasty. That's the key question in what's shaping up as the Senate's marquee race-a race that may cost $45 million to $50 million or more before it's over. Given Santorum's history and persona, most veteran observers are expecting a hard-fought, nasty battle. And the stakes couldn't be much higher: The Democrats need to pick up six seats to gain control of the U.S. Senate.
A few months ago, it looked like Casey, the son of the late Pennsylvania Gov. Robert Casey, was a sure winner; a Quinnipiac poll in June showed him with a 52-to-34 percent lead over Santorum. But a poll released last week showed that Casey's lead had been cut to just 6 points. Political experts believe that Santorum is gaining thanks to a run of effective television and radio advertising, in which he appears calm and collected, not strident. But Santorum, they argue, has more work to do on softening his image to have a shot at winning. His voting record is one of the most conservative in the Senate, and he has strong views against abortion, embryonic stem cell research, and gay marriage.
In contrast, Casey is a soft-spoken, laid-back moderate Democrat, plugged into the state political scene in Harrisburg. Like Santorum, he is an antiabortion Roman Catholic who opposes gun control and pulling troops out of Iraq. But Casey aims to differentiate himself by arguing that he will not walk in lock step with Bush. Casey is against privatizing Social Security and tax cuts for the wealthy, while he supports deficit reduction and decisive action against global warming. "People want to go in a new direction," says Casey, campaigning at Guy's Hardware in Manns Choice, a small town in the southern part of the state. "Senator Santorum's record has been a 98 percent voting record with the president."
But like most incumbents, Santorum has the fundraising advantage; he's raised about $17 million thus far, compared with $11 million for Casey. That's allowed Santorum to spend more on ads, which could be crucial. Three of 10 voters say they don't know Casey well enough to form an opinion, according to a recent poll. His previous posts as state treasurer and state auditor general are relatively low-profile jobs that have done little to define him. "We have a long way to go between now and Election Day to get our message out," admits Casey.
Political experts say the race will be decided in the famously fickle Philadelphia suburbs. So expect Santorum to be running hard and aggressively. Casey, too. It's likely to be a bare-knuckle finale, says Jerry Shuster, professor of political communications at the University of Pittsburgh. "They will be painting each other with a broader brush," he says. "And it will be a black brush."
Rick Santorum. Born: May 10, 1958 Home: Penn Hills, Pa. Elected office: U.S. Senate, 1994-present; U.S. House, 1990-94 Professional career: practicing attorney, 1986-90; staff of Sen. J. Doyle, 1981-86 Family: married, six children
Bob Casey Jr. Born: April 13, 1960 Home: Scranton, Pa. Elected office: state treasurer, 2005-present; state auditor general, 1997-2005 Professional career: practicing attorney, 1991-96; schoolteacher, 1982-83 Family: married, four children
This story appears in the August 28, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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